St. Louis Blues at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2022-05-19 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 1 - 4 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 62.3%

STL: 37.7%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.85

STL: 2.89

Total Goals

Median: 6.9

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 54%

COL

D. Kuemper

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	D. Kuemper	32	28	4	87.5%	4.64	3	0.64
STL	Jordan Binnington	31	30	1	96.8%	1.68	0	0.68

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 54% • COL at home vs STL: 6-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	STL 1 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2026-04-05	COL 2 - 3 STL	STL	COL
2025-12-31	COL 6 - 1 STL	COL	COL
2025-04-05	STL 5 - 4 COL	STL	COL
2025-03-29	COL 1 - 2 STL	STL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	12	0	0.56
1	STL	16	0	0.91
2	COL	15	0	0.68
2	STL	15	0	0.95
3	COL	15	0	0.44
3	STL	10	3	2.78

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 1 - 4 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.8 - 2.9