Edmonton Oilers at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2022-05-18 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 9 - 6 Edmonton Oilers

Win Probability

CGY: 57.5%

EDM: 42.5%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.34

EDM: 3.26

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 50%

CGY

J. Markstrom

EDM

M. Smith

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	28	22	6	78.6%	2.25	1	-3.75
EDM	M. Smith	48	39	9	81.2%	4.86	3	-4.14

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 39% • CGY at home vs EDM: 5-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	CGY 4 - 3 EDM	CGY	EDM
2025-12-27	CGY 3 - 2 EDM	CGY	EDM
2025-12-23	EDM 5 - 1 CGY	EDM	CGY
2025-10-08	EDM 3 - 4 CGY	CGY	EDM
2025-03-29	EDM 3 - 2 CGY	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	23	2	2.05
1	EDM	8	0	0.59
2	CGY	28	0	1.68
2	EDM	13	0	0.95
3	CGY	12	1	1.13
3	EDM	15	1	0.72

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 15.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 9 - 6 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.3 - 3.3