Calgary Flames at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions
2022-05-22 • Rogers Place
Edmonton Oilers 4 - 1 Calgary Flames
🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
EDM: 48.9%
CGY: 51.1%
Expected Goals
EDM: 3.19
CGY: 3.15
Total Goals
Median: 6.4
Over 5.5: 59%
Over 6.5: 45%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
EDM
M. Smith
CGY
J. Markstrom
| Stat | EDM | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | — | — |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | — | — |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | M. Smith | 33 | 32 | 1 | 97.0% | 3.15 | 0 | 2.15 |
| CGY | J. Markstrom | 41 | 37 | 4 | 90.2% | 3.85 | 0 | -0.15 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 39% • EDM at home vs CGY: 7-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-04 | CGY 4 - 3 EDM | CGY | EDM |
| 2025-12-27 | CGY 3 - 2 EDM | CGY | EDM |
| 2025-12-23 | EDM 5 - 1 CGY | EDM | CGY |
| 2025-10-08 | EDM 3 - 4 CGY | CGY | EDM |
| 2025-03-29 | EDM 3 - 2 CGY | EDM | EDM |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EDM | 25 | 0 | 1.56 |
| 1 | CGY | 14 | 0 | 0.86 |
| 2 | EDM | 19 | 0 | 1.42 |
| 2 | CGY | 13 | 0 | 0.71 |
| 3 | EDM | 9 | 0 | 0.87 |
| 3 | CGY | 21 | 0 | 1.58 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 51.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Edmonton Oilers 4 - 1 Calgary Flames
Expected: 3.2 - 3.2
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