New York Rangers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2022-06-07 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 New York Rangers

Win Probability

TBL: 65.2%

NYR: 34.8%

Expected Goals

TBL: 2.92

NYR: 2.83

Total Goals

Median: 7.0

Over 5.5: 71%

Over 6.5: 54%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	35	34	1	97.1%	2.29	0	1.29
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	31	27	4	87.1%	4.51	2	0.51

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 48% • TBL at home vs NYR: 6-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	TBL 2 - 4 NYR	NYR	TBL
2025-11-29	NYR 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-12	TBL 3 - 7 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-04-17	NYR 4 - 0 TBL	NYR	TBL
2025-04-07	NYR 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	15	0	0.94
1	NYR	12	0	0.44
2	TBL	12	0	0.94
2	NYR	16	0	0.84
3	TBL	23	2	2.62
3	NYR	18	0	1.01

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 65.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 New York Rangers

Expected: 2.9 - 2.8