New York Rangers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2022-06-11 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 1 New York Rangers

Win Probability

TBL: 62.3%

NYR: 37.7%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.01

NYR: 3.29

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	21	20	1	95.2%	1.44	0	0.44
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	31	29	2	93.5%	3.02	2	1.02

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 48% • TBL at home vs NYR: 6-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	TBL 2 - 4 NYR	NYR	TBL
2025-11-29	NYR 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-12	TBL 3 - 7 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-04-17	NYR 4 - 0 TBL	NYR	TBL
2025-04-07	NYR 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	19	0	0.72
1	NYR	8	0	0.42
2	TBL	16	1	1.31
2	NYR	6	0	0.27
3	TBL	11	1	0.98
3	NYR	14	0	0.75

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 1 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.0 - 3.3