Colorado Avalanche at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2022-06-26 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 1 - 2 Colorado Avalanche

Win Probability

TBL: 43.5%

COL: 56.5%

Expected Goals

TBL: 2.79

COL: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 49%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

COL

D. Kuemper

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	30	28	2	93.3%	3.71	2	1.71
COL	D. Kuemper	23	22	1	95.7%	2.20	0	1.20

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • TBL at home vs COL: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-06	TBL 4 - 2 COL	TBL	COL
2025-11-04	COL 3 - 2 TBL	COL	COL
2024-11-25	TBL 8 - 2 COL	TBL	COL
2024-10-30	COL 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	COL
2024-02-15	TBL 6 - 3 COL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	14	0	0.96
1	COL	13	1	0.93
2	TBL	11	0	0.57
2	COL	20	0	1.46
3	TBL	7	0	0.67
3	COL	13	1	1.32

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 1 - 2 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 2.8 - 3.1