Boston Bruins at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2022-10-12 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 2 - 5 Boston Bruins

Win Probability

WSH: 44.9%

BOS: 55.1%

Expected Goals

WSH: 2.61

BOS: 3.23

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 45%

WSH

D. Kuemper

BOS

L. Ullmark

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	D. Kuemper	30	25	5	83.3%	3.32	4	-1.68
BOS	L. Ullmark	35	33	2	94.3%	3.44	2	1.44

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • WSH at home vs BOS: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	WSH 2 - 3 BOS	BOS	WSH
2026-03-07	BOS 3 - 1 WSH	BOS	BOS
2025-10-08	WSH 1 - 3 BOS	BOS	WSH
2025-04-01	BOS 3 - 4 WSH	WSH	BOS
2024-12-31	WSH 3 - 1 BOS	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	17	1	1.05
1	BOS	17	0	1.03
2	WSH	14	0	0.99
2	BOS	9	2	0.97
3	WSH	15	1	1.39
3	BOS	12	2	1.33

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 2 - 5 Boston Bruins

Expected: 2.6 - 3.2