Arizona Coyotes at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2022-10-13 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 6 - 2 Arizona Coyotes

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 45.2%

ARI: 54.8%

Expected Goals

PIT: 2.88

ARI: 3.27

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 42%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

ARI

K. Vejmelka - 12-21-0 | 0.891 SV% | 3.67 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	28	26	2	92.9%	2.45	1	0.45
ARI	K. Vejmelka	53	47	6	88.7%	6.05	3	0.05

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PIT at home vs ARI: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2024-01-22	ARI 5 - 2 PIT	ARI	PIT
2023-12-12	PIT 4 - 2 ARI	PIT	PIT
2023-01-08	ARI 1 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT
2022-10-13	PIT 6 - 2 ARI	PIT	ARI
2022-03-19	ARI 1 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	22	1	2.10
1	ARI	7	0	0.40
2	PIT	27	1	2.47
2	ARI	16	1	1.36
3	PIT	17	1	1.48
3	ARI	10	0	0.69

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 6 - 2 Arizona Coyotes

Expected: 2.9 - 3.3