Ottawa Senators at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2022-10-13 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 1 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 48.3%

OTT: 51.7%

Expected Goals

BUF: 2.81

OTT: 2.90

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 47%

BUF

C. Anderson

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	C. Anderson	36	35	1	97.2%	2.57	1	1.57
OTT	Anton Forsberg	36	32	4	88.9%	3.79	3	-0.21

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • BUF at home vs OTT: 6-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	OTT 4 - 1 BUF	OTT	OTT
2025-12-23	OTT 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	OTT
2025-10-15	BUF 8 - 4 OTT	BUF	OTT
2025-04-01	OTT 2 - 5 BUF	BUF	OTT
2025-03-25	BUF 3 - 2 OTT	BUF	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	11	0	0.63
1	OTT	18	0	1.00
2	BUF	17	1	1.29
2	OTT	11	1	1.10
3	BUF	17	2	1.88
3	OTT	12	0	0.47

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 1 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 2.8 - 2.9