Vancouver Canucks at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2022-10-15 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 2 Vancouver Canucks

🚨 Upset Win (77% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 23.2%

VAN: 76.8%

Expected Goals

PHI: 2.18

VAN: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 40%

PHI

C. Hart

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	C. Hart	30	28	2	93.3%	2.62	3	0.62
VAN	Thatcher Demko	31	28	3	90.3%	2.98	2	-0.02

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • PHI at home vs VAN: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-30	VAN 3 - 6 PHI	PHI	PHI
2025-12-22	PHI 5 - 2 VAN	PHI	PHI
2024-10-19	PHI 0 - 3 VAN	VAN	VAN
2024-10-11	VAN 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI
2023-12-28	VAN 1 - 4 PHI	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	20	0	1.16
1	VAN	5	0	0.16
2	PHI	12	0	0.61
2	VAN	18	3	1.67
3	PHI	10	2	1.21
3	VAN	18	0	0.79

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 76.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.3

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 2 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 2.2 - 3.1