Montreal Canadiens at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2022-10-15 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 3 - 1 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

WSH: 70.8%

MTL: 29.2%

Expected Goals

WSH: 4.02

MTL: 3.62

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

WSH

D. Kuemper

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	D. Kuemper	22	21	1	95.5%	2.23	1	1.23
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	29	26	3	89.7%	4.34	7	1.34

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • WSH at home vs MTL: 8-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	MTL 6 - 2 WSH	MTL	MTL
2026-01-13	WSH 3 - 2 MTL	WSH	WSH
2025-11-20	MTL 4 - 8 WSH	WSH	MTL
2025-04-30	WSH 4 - 1 MTL	WSH	WSH
2025-04-27	MTL 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	15	0	0.50
1	MTL	11	0	0.67
2	WSH	22	5	2.58
2	MTL	9	1	0.71
3	WSH	8	2	1.27
3	MTL	18	0	0.85

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 70.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 7.6

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 3 - 1 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 4.0 - 3.6