Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2022-10-15 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 2 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 47.9%

OTT: 52.1%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.81

OTT: 4.26

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 45%

TOR

I. Samsonov

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	I. Samsonov	28	26	2	92.9%	2.67	2	0.67
OTT	Anton Forsberg	32	29	3	90.6%	3.23	0	0.23

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TOR at home vs OTT: 6-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	OTT 3 - 1 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-03-21	OTT 5 - 2 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-02-28	TOR 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-27	TOR 7 - 5 OTT	TOR	OTT
2025-05-01	OTT 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	17	0	0.93
1	OTT	13	0	0.98
2	TOR	18	0	1.68
2	OTT	12	1	0.72
3	TOR	13	0	0.62
3	OTT	13	1	0.97

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 7.1

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 2 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 2.8 - 4.3