Arizona Coyotes at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2022-10-17 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 4 Arizona Coyotes

🚨 Upset Loss (69% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 69.1%

ARI: 30.9%

Expected Goals

TOR: 4.38

ARI: 3.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 50%

TOR

E. Kallgren

ARI

K. Vejmelka - 12-21-0 | 0.891 SV% | 3.67 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	E. Kallgren	19	15	4	78.9%	2.79	3	-1.21
ARI	K. Vejmelka	28	26	2	92.9%	3.41	1	1.41

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TOR at home vs ARI: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2024-02-29	TOR 4 - 2 ARI	TOR	TOR
2024-02-21	ARI 3 - 6 TOR	TOR	TOR
2022-12-29	ARI 6 - 3 TOR	ARI	TOR
2022-10-17	TOR 2 - 4 ARI	ARI	TOR
2022-03-10	TOR 4 - 5 ARI	ARI	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	12	0	1.01
1	ARI	4	0	0.23
2	TOR	9	0	0.58
2	ARI	11	2	1.53
3	TOR	22	1	1.82
3	ARI	7	1	1.02

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 69.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 8.4

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 4 Arizona Coyotes

Expected: 4.4 - 4.0