Vancouver Canucks at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2022-10-17 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 6 - 4 Vancouver Canucks

🚨 Upset Win (60% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 40.3%

VAN: 59.7%

Expected Goals

WSH: 2.18

VAN: 3.44

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 45%

WSH

D. Kuemper

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	D. Kuemper	30	26	4	86.7%	2.35	0	-1.65
VAN	Thatcher Demko	30	24	6	80.0%	2.86	2	-3.14

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 30% • WSH at home vs VAN: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-21	VAN 4 - 3 WSH	VAN	WSH
2025-10-19	WSH 3 - 4 VAN	VAN	WSH
2025-01-25	VAN 2 - 1 WSH	VAN	VAN
2025-01-08	WSH 2 - 1 VAN	WSH	VAN
2024-03-16	VAN 1 - 2 WSH	WSH	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	11	0	0.38
1	VAN	12	0	0.77
2	WSH	14	1	1.28
2	VAN	21	0	1.27
3	WSH	13	1	1.20
3	VAN	11	0	0.32

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 6 - 4 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 2.2 - 3.4