Winnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2022-10-17 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 4 - 1 Winnipeg Jets

🚨 Upset Win (73% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 27.3%

WPG: 72.7%

Expected Goals

DAL: 2.54

WPG: 3.18

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 51%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	25	24	1	96.0%	3.38	1	2.38
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	29	25	4	86.2%	3.70	2	-0.30

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • DAL at home vs WPG: 10-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	DAL 3 - 0 WPG	DAL	DAL
2026-02-02	DAL 4 - 3 WPG	DAL	DAL
2025-12-09	WPG 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-10-09	WPG 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	WPG
2025-05-17	DAL 2 - 1 WPG	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	13	1	1.20
1	WPG	15	0	1.03
2	DAL	14	0	0.91
2	WPG	12	0	0.97
3	DAL	14	1	1.59
3	WPG	17	1	1.38

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 72.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 4 - 1 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 2.5 - 3.2