Boston Bruins at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2022-10-18 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 7 - 5 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 48.3%

BOS: 51.7%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.17

BOS: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Anton Forsberg	34	29	5	85.3%	3.65	2	-1.35
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	31	24	7	77.4%	4.12	1	-2.88

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 63% • OTT at home vs BOS: 6-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-21	BOS 2 - 6 OTT	OTT	BOS
2025-11-13	OTT 5 - 3 BOS	OTT	OTT
2025-11-06	BOS 3 - 2 OTT	BOS	OTT
2025-10-27	OTT 7 - 2 BOS	OTT	OTT
2025-03-13	OTT 6 - 3 BOS	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	17	0	1.45
1	BOS	16	1	0.99
2	OTT	20	0	1.52
2	BOS	18	1	1.44
3	OTT	10	1	1.16
3	BOS	16	0	1.23

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 12.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 7 - 5 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1