Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2022-10-18 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 53.3%

PHI: 46.7%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.09

PHI: 3.01

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 43%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

PHI

C. Hart

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	24	21	3	87.5%	2.27	1	-0.73
PHI	C. Hart	38	36	2	94.7%	4.31	1	2.31

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • TBL at home vs PHI: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-12	PHI 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-01-10	PHI 2 - 7 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-24	TBL 3 - 0 PHI	TBL	TBL
2025-03-17	TBL 2 - 0 PHI	TBL	TBL
2025-03-13	PHI 4 - 3 TBL	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	13	0	1.03
1	PHI	8	0	0.41
2	TBL	26	1	2.19
2	PHI	15	1	0.91
3	TBL	16	0	1.10
3	PHI	10	0	0.95

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0