Winnipeg Jets at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2022-10-19 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 4 Winnipeg Jets (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 51.1%

WPG: 48.9%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.53

WPG: 3.67

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 45%

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	28	24	4	85.7%	2.91	1	-1.09
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	33	30	3	90.9%	2.43	0	-0.57

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • COL at home vs WPG: 7-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	COL 2 - 4 WPG	WPG	COL
2026-03-26	WPG 2 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-14	WPG 3 - 1 COL	WPG	COL
2025-12-19	COL 3 - 2 WPG	COL	COL
2025-01-22	COL 2 - 3 WPG	WPG	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	12	0	0.59
1	WPG	16	1	1.74
2	COL	16	0	1.00
2	WPG	17	0	0.90
3	COL	12	0	0.77
3	WPG	6	0	0.27
4	COL	1	0	0.07
4	WPG	1	0	0.01

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 7.2

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 4 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.5 - 3.7