Washington Capitals at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2022-10-20 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 5 - 2 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

OTT: 59.0%

WSH: 41.0%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.23

WSH: 2.90

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 71%

Over 6.5: 53%

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

WSH

D. Kuemper

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Anton Forsberg	24	22	2	91.7%	2.19	1	0.19
WSH	D. Kuemper	44	39	5	88.6%	5.09	4	0.09

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • OTT at home vs WSH: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-18	WSH 4 - 1 OTT	WSH	OTT
2026-01-01	OTT 4 - 3 WSH	OTT	OTT
2025-10-25	WSH 1 - 7 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-03-03	WSH 5 - 4 OTT	WSH	WSH
2025-01-30	OTT 5 - 4 WSH	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	9	0	0.47
1	WSH	16	0	1.02
2	OTT	16	1	1.41
2	WSH	11	0	0.52
3	OTT	26	3	3.21
3	WSH	11	1	0.65

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 5 - 2 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9