Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2022-10-21 • FLA Live Arena

Florida Panthers 2 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning (OT)

Win Probability

FLA: 38.5%

TBL: 61.5%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.08

TBL: 3.42

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 49%

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	32	29	3	90.6%	4.02	4	1.02
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	38	36	2	94.7%	3.02	2	1.02

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • FLA at home vs TBL: 7-9

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	TBL 6 - 1 FLA	TBL	TBL
2025-12-27	FLA 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-12-15	TBL 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	TBL
2025-11-15	FLA 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-04-30	TBL 3 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	22	1	1.60
1	TBL	9	2	1.01
2	FLA	14	1	0.78
2	TBL	16	1	1.11
3	FLA	7	0	0.56
3	TBL	16	1	1.42
4	FLA	1	0	0.07
4	TBL	3	0	0.49

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 2 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.1 - 3.4