Dallas Stars at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2022-10-22 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 5 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 61.0%

DAL: 39.0%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.44

DAL: 3.46

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 43%

MTL

J. Allen

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	J. Allen	30	25	5	83.3%	3.84	1	-1.16
DAL	Jake Oettinger	34	32	2	94.1%	2.55	1	0.55

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • MTL at home vs DAL: 0-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-04	DAL 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	DAL
2025-11-13	MTL 0 - 7 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-01-16	DAL 1 - 3 MTL	MTL	DAL
2025-01-11	MTL 1 - 2 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-02-10	MTL 2 - 3 DAL	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	14	1	1.12
1	DAL	17	0	1.26
2	MTL	16	0	0.78
2	DAL	15	1	1.53
3	MTL	10	0	0.64
3	DAL	12	0	1.04

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 5 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.4 - 3.5