New York Islanders at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2022-10-22 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 3 New York Islanders

Win Probability

TBL: 51.7%

NYI: 48.3%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.27

NYI: 3.07

Total Goals

Median: 7.0

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 54%

TBL

B. Elliott

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	B. Elliott	35	32	3	91.4%	3.35	0	0.35
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	26	21	5	80.8%	3.91	3	-1.09

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TBL at home vs NYI: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-13	NYI 3 - 2 TBL	NYI	NYI
2025-12-06	TBL 0 - 2 NYI	NYI	TBL
2025-12-02	NYI 2 - 1 TBL	NYI	NYI
2025-04-01	NYI 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-03-29	TBL 5 - 3 NYI	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	11	1	0.83
1	NYI	16	0	1.43
2	TBL	16	0	0.93
2	NYI	20	0	1.08
3	TBL	10	2	2.15
3	NYI	17	0	0.85

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 3 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1