Toronto Maple Leafs at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2022-10-22 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 1 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

Win Probability

WPG: 57.3%

TOR: 42.7%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.21

TOR: 2.70

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 49%

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

TOR

I. Samsonov

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	28	24	4	85.7%	2.96	2	-1.04
TOR	I. Samsonov	31	30	1	96.8%	2.78	4	1.78

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • WPG at home vs TOR: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-17	WPG 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	WPG
2026-01-01	TOR 6 - 5 WPG	TOR	TOR
2024-12-23	TOR 2 - 5 WPG	WPG	TOR
2024-10-28	WPG 4 - 6 TOR	TOR	TOR
2024-01-27	WPG 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	12	2	1.03
1	TOR	16	1	1.09
2	WPG	13	2	0.92
2	TOR	17	0	1.03
3	WPG	18	0	0.83
3	TOR	12	1	0.84

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 1 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.2 - 2.7