Colorado Avalanche at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2022-10-22 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 60.2%

COL: 39.8%

Expected Goals

VGK: 2.94

COL: 2.59

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 47%

VGK

L. Thompson

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	L. Thompson	25	22	3	88.0%	2.43	1	-0.57
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	35	33	2	94.3%	2.95	0	0.95

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • VGK at home vs COL: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-26	VGK 2 - 1 COL	VGK	COL
2026-05-24	VGK 5 - 3 COL	VGK	COL
2026-05-22	COL 1 - 3 VGK	VGK	COL
2026-05-20	COL 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	COL
2026-04-11	COL 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	8	0	0.62
1	COL	14	0	0.57
2	VGK	20	0	1.35
2	COL	17	0	0.82
3	VGK	18	0	0.98
3	COL	8	1	1.04

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.5

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 2.9 - 2.6