San Jose Sharks at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions
2022-10-23 • Wells Fargo Center
Philadelphia Flyers 0 - 3 San Jose Sharks
🚨 Upset Loss (68% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PHI: 68.1%
SJS: 31.9%
Expected Goals
PHI: 3.36
SJS: 2.64
Total Goals
Median: 6.1
Over 5.5: 59%
Over 6.5: 45%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PHI
F. Sandstrom
SJS
J. Reimer
| Stat | PHI | SJS |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | — | — |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | — | — |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | F. Sandstrom | 25 | 22 | 3 | 88.0% | 2.93 | 1 | -0.07 |
| SJS | J. Reimer | 30 | 30 | 0 | 100.0% | 1.65 | 1 | 1.65 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • PHI at home vs SJS: 3-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | SJS 1 - 4 PHI | PHI | SJS |
| 2025-12-09 | PHI 4 - 1 SJS | PHI | PHI |
| 2024-12-31 | SJS 0 - 4 PHI | PHI | PHI |
| 2024-11-11 | PHI 4 - 3 SJS | PHI | PHI |
| 2024-03-12 | PHI 3 - 2 SJS | PHI | PHI |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI | 16 | 1 | 0.68 |
| 1 | SJS | 13 | 0 | 1.00 |
| 2 | PHI | 7 | 0 | 0.23 |
| 2 | SJS | 16 | 0 | 0.95 |
| 3 | PHI | 18 | 0 | 0.74 |
| 3 | SJS | 8 | 1 | 0.98 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 68.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 3.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
Philadelphia Flyers 0 - 3 San Jose Sharks
Expected: 3.4 - 2.6
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