Dallas Stars at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2022-10-24 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 4 - 2 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

OTT: 61.4%

DAL: 38.6%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.11

DAL: 2.88

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 48%

OTT

M. Hellberg

DAL

S. Wedgewood

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	M. Hellberg	31	29	2	93.5%	3.11	2	1.11
DAL	S. Wedgewood	32	28	4	87.5%	3.88	1	-0.12

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • OTT at home vs DAL: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-30	DAL 6 - 1 OTT	DAL	OTT
2025-11-11	OTT 2 - 3 DAL	DAL	OTT
2025-01-12	OTT 3 - 2 DAL	OTT	OTT
2025-01-02	DAL 4 - 2 OTT	DAL	OTT
2024-02-22	OTT 4 - 1 DAL	OTT	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	10	0	0.67
1	DAL	13	1	0.83
2	OTT	21	0	1.99
2	DAL	13	0	1.17
3	OTT	15	1	1.22
3	DAL	13	1	1.11

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 4 - 2 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.1 - 2.9