Pittsburgh Penguins at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2022-10-24 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 6 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Win (69% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 31.2%

PIT: 68.8%

Expected Goals

EDM: 2.50

PIT: 4.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 50%

EDM

Jack Campbell - 1-4-0 | 0.873 SV% | 4.50 GAA

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Jack Campbell	35	32	3	91.4%	2.65	2	-0.35
PIT	Tristan Jarry	47	41	6	87.2%	4.55	3	-1.45

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • EDM at home vs PIT: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-22	EDM 2 - 6 PIT	PIT	EDM
2025-12-16	PIT 4 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-01-09	PIT 5 - 3 EDM	PIT	EDM
2024-10-25	EDM 4 - 0 PIT	EDM	EDM
2024-03-10	PIT 0 - 4 EDM	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	11	1	0.81
1	PIT	25	1	1.82
2	EDM	32	1	2.26
2	PIT	8	1	0.51
3	EDM	21	1	1.48
3	PIT	14	0	0.32

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 68.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 6 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 2.5 - 4.1