Pittsburgh Penguins at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2022-10-25 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 4 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

CGY: 64.8%

PIT: 35.2%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.90

PIT: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 50%

CGY

J. Markstrom

PIT

C. DeSmith

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	33	32	1	97.0%	2.77	0	1.77
PIT	C. DeSmith	36	32	4	88.9%	3.79	2	-0.21

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • CGY at home vs PIT: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-21	CGY 1 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-01-10	PIT 1 - 2 CGY	CGY	PIT
2024-11-30	PIT 6 - 2 CGY	PIT	PIT
2024-10-22	CGY 4 - 3 PIT	CGY	CGY
2024-03-02	CGY 4 - 3 PIT	CGY	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	25	2	2.27
1	PIT	9	0	0.43
2	CGY	9	0	0.45
2	PIT	29	0	1.83
3	CGY	15	0	1.08
3	PIT	11	0	0.52

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 4 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.9 - 3.0