Vegas Golden Knights at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2022-10-25 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 2 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Loss (69% underdog)

Win Probability

SJS: 68.8%

VGK: 31.2%

Expected Goals

SJS: 3.24

VGK: 3.33

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 47%

SJS

J. Reimer

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	J. Reimer	31	27	4	87.1%	3.60	2	-0.40
VGK	Adin Hill	31	29	2	93.5%	2.57	1	0.57

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 72% • SJS at home vs VGK: 1-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-11	SJS 2 - 7 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-12-23	VGK 7 - 2 SJS	VGK	VGK
2025-11-29	VGK 4 - 3 SJS	VGK	VGK
2025-10-09	SJS 3 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-07	SJS 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	10	0	0.63
1	VGK	17	1	1.65
2	SJS	19	1	1.08
2	VGK	10	0	0.39
3	SJS	15	0	0.87
3	VGK	15	1	1.57

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 68.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 2 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.2 - 3.3