Tampa Bay Lightning at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2022-10-26 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 2 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

Win Probability

ANA: 58.2%

TBL: 41.8%

Expected Goals

ANA: 3.19

TBL: 3.27

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 52%

ANA

John Gibson - 13-27-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.54 GAA

TBL

B. Elliott

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	John Gibson	30	26	4	86.7%	3.38	2	-0.62
TBL	B. Elliott	21	19	2	90.5%	1.79	0	-0.21

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • ANA at home vs TBL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-31	ANA 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-25	TBL 4 - 3 ANA	TBL	TBL
2025-01-16	TBL 4 - 3 ANA	TBL	TBL
2025-01-05	ANA 4 - 1 TBL	ANA	TBL
2024-03-24	ANA 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	ANA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	6	0	0.32
1	TBL	14	0	0.68
2	ANA	13	0	0.60
2	TBL	17	0	1.45
3	ANA	9	0	0.87
3	TBL	11	2	1.25

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Anaheim Ducks 2 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.2 - 3.3