Toronto Maple Leafs at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2022-10-27 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 4 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs (OT)

Win Probability

SJS: 62.2%

TOR: 37.8%

Expected Goals

SJS: 3.07

TOR: 3.23

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 49%

SJS

K. Kahkonen

TOR

E. Kallgren

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	K. Kahkonen	25	22	3	88.0%	2.66	1	-0.34
TOR	E. Kallgren	31	27	4	87.1%	2.49	0	-1.51

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • SJS at home vs TOR: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	SJS 4 - 1 TOR	SJS	SJS
2025-12-11	TOR 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	TOR
2025-03-27	SJS 6 - 5 TOR	SJS	SJS
2025-03-03	TOR 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	TOR
2024-01-09	TOR 7 - 1 SJS	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	7	0	0.46
1	TOR	16	0	1.11
2	SJS	19	0	1.25
2	TOR	8	0	0.39
3	SJS	12	0	0.44
3	TOR	15	1	1.17
4	SJS	2	0	0.34
4	TOR	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 4 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2