Pittsburgh Penguins at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2022-10-28 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 5 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Win (69% underdog)

Win Probability

VAN: 31.0%

PIT: 69.0%

Expected Goals

VAN: 2.76

PIT: 3.24

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 53%

VAN

S. Martin

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	S. Martin	35	34	1	97.1%	2.91	3	1.91
PIT	Tristan Jarry	29	24	5	82.8%	3.34	1	-1.66

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • VAN at home vs PIT: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-25	VAN 2 - 3 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-10-21	PIT 5 - 1 VAN	PIT	PIT
2024-11-27	PIT 5 - 4 VAN	PIT	PIT
2024-10-26	VAN 4 - 3 PIT	VAN	VAN
2024-02-27	VAN 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	14	0	1.20
1	PIT	8	0	0.49
2	VAN	10	0	0.53
2	PIT	18	3	1.71
3	VAN	12	1	1.62
3	PIT	19	0	0.71

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 69.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Vancouver Canucks 5 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 2.8 - 3.2