Toronto Maple Leafs at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2022-10-30 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 4 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

ANA: 46.5%

TOR: 53.5%

Expected Goals

ANA: 2.78

TOR: 4.23

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 49%

ANA

John Gibson - 13-27-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.54 GAA

TOR

E. Kallgren

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	John Gibson	36	33	3	91.7%	4.83	3	1.83
TOR	E. Kallgren	39	35	4	89.7%	3.31	0	-0.69

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • ANA at home vs TOR: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-30	ANA 4 - 5 TOR	TOR	ANA
2026-03-12	TOR 6 - 4 ANA	TOR	TOR
2025-03-30	ANA 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	ANA
2024-12-12	TOR 3 - 2 ANA	TOR	TOR
2024-02-17	TOR 9 - 2 ANA	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	12	0	1.01
1	TOR	19	1	1.86
2	ANA	19	0	1.05
2	TOR	10	0	0.84
3	ANA	16	0	0.93
3	TOR	15	2	1.71
4	ANA	4	0	0.31
4	TOR	4	0	0.41

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 7.0

Score Breakdown

Anaheim Ducks 4 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 2.8 - 4.2