Detroit Red Wings at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2022-10-31 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 8 - 3 Detroit Red Wings

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 48.5%

DET: 51.5%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.24

DET: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 52%

BUF

E. Comrie

DET

A. Nedeljkovic

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	E. Comrie	18	15	3	83.3%	1.71	0	-1.29
DET	A. Nedeljkovic	46	38	8	82.6%	3.66	1	-4.34

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 63% • BUF at home vs DET: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-27	BUF 2 - 5 DET	DET	BUF
2025-11-15	DET 4 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-10-22	BUF 4 - 2 DET	BUF	BUF
2025-03-12	DET 7 - 3 BUF	DET	DET
2024-12-09	BUF 5 - 6 DET	DET	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	18	0	0.50
1	DET	8	0	0.41
2	BUF	20	1	1.56
2	DET	14	0	0.92
3	BUF	23	0	1.60
3	DET	6	0	0.39

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 8 - 3 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1