Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2022-11-01 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 3 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 47.9%

OTT: 52.1%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.18

OTT: 3.36

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	15	12	3	80.0%	2.29	2	-0.71
OTT	Anton Forsberg	34	30	4	88.2%	3.44	3	-0.56

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TBL at home vs OTT: 6-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	OTT 6 - 2 TBL	OTT	OTT
2026-03-28	TBL 4 - 2 OTT	TBL	TBL
2025-10-09	TBL 4 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-04-03	OTT 2 - 1 TBL	OTT	TBL
2025-02-06	TBL 5 - 1 OTT	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	14	1	1.12
1	OTT	7	1	0.65
2	TBL	18	0	1.47
2	OTT	9	1	0.79
3	TBL	11	2	0.85
3	OTT	13	0	0.85

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 3 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.2 - 3.4