Vegas Golden Knights at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2022-11-01 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights (OT)

Win Probability

WSH: 43.2%

VGK: 56.8%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.11

VGK: 3.29

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 51%

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

VGK

L. Thompson

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	31	28	3	90.3%	2.14	0	-0.86
VGK	L. Thompson	21	19	2	90.5%	1.51	1	-0.49

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • WSH at home vs VGK: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	VGK 4 - 5 WSH	WSH	VGK
2026-02-27	WSH 3 - 2 VGK	WSH	VGK
2024-11-17	VGK 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH
2024-10-15	WSH 4 - 2 VGK	WSH	VGK
2023-12-02	VGK 4 - 1 WSH	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	9	1	0.54
1	VGK	14	0	0.69
2	WSH	15	0	0.78
2	VGK	9	0	0.55
3	WSH	7	0	0.19
3	VGK	12	0	0.65
4	WSH	0	0	0.00
4	VGK	2	0	0.26

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3