Columbus Blue Jackets at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2022-11-04 • Nokia Arena

Colorado Avalanche 6 - 3 Columbus Blue Jackets

Win Probability

COL: 62.2%

CBJ: 37.8%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.40

CBJ: 2.81

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 41%

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	39	36	3	92.3%	5.17	6	2.17
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	36	30	6	83.3%	3.27	1	-2.73

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • COL at home vs CBJ: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-10	COL 4 - 0 CBJ	COL	COL
2025-10-16	CBJ 1 - 4 COL	COL	COL
2025-04-03	CBJ 3 - 7 COL	COL	COL
2024-10-12	COL 4 - 6 CBJ	CBJ	COL
2024-04-01	CBJ 4 - 1 COL	CBJ	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	17	0	1.14
1	CBJ	11	2	1.06
2	COL	13	0	0.94
2	CBJ	14	1	1.44
3	COL	15	1	1.18
3	CBJ	23	3	2.67

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 6 - 3 Columbus Blue Jackets

Expected: 3.4 - 2.8