Dallas Stars at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2022-11-05 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 6 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 54.9%

DAL: 45.1%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.06

DAL: 2.71

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 53%

EDM

Jack Campbell - 1-4-0 | 0.873 SV% | 4.50 GAA

DAL

S. Wedgewood

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Jack Campbell	36	30	6	83.3%	3.51	5	-2.49
DAL	S. Wedgewood	30	28	2	93.3%	3.73	4	1.73

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • EDM at home vs DAL: 7-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-12	DAL 7 - 2 EDM	DAL	DAL
2025-11-25	EDM 3 - 8 DAL	DAL	EDM
2025-11-04	DAL 4 - 3 EDM	DAL	DAL
2025-05-29	DAL 3 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-05-27	EDM 4 - 1 DAL	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	14	2	1.44
1	DAL	19	2	1.34
2	EDM	12	0	1.04
2	DAL	23	2	1.50
3	EDM	17	2	1.25
3	DAL	9	1	0.67

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 6 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.1 - 2.7