Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2022-11-05 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

TBL: 61.8%

BUF: 38.2%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.23

BUF: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

TBL

B. Elliott

BUF

E. Comrie

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	B. Elliott	24	21	3	87.5%	3.28	2	0.28
BUF	E. Comrie	30	25	5	83.3%	4.52	2	-0.48

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TBL at home vs BUF: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-06	BUF 4 - 2 TBL	BUF	TBL
2026-03-08	BUF 8 - 7 TBL	BUF	TBL
2026-02-28	TBL 2 - 6 BUF	BUF	TBL
2026-02-03	TBL 4 - 3 BUF	TBL	TBL
2025-04-13	TBL 7 - 4 BUF	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	10	0	1.00
1	BUF	8	0	0.70
2	TBL	18	0	1.43
2	BUF	15	2	1.45
3	TBL	12	2	2.08
3	BUF	14	0	1.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0