Vegas Golden Knights at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2022-11-05 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 6 Vegas Golden Knights

Win Probability

MTL: 42.1%

VGK: 57.9%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.65

VGK: 3.64

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

MTL

J. Allen

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	J. Allen	42	36	6	85.7%	4.20	1	-1.80
VGK	Adin Hill	31	27	4	87.1%	2.82	1	-1.18

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • MTL at home vs VGK: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-27	MTL 3 - 2 VGK	MTL	MTL
2025-11-28	VGK 1 - 4 MTL	MTL	VGK
2024-12-31	VGK 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	VGK
2024-11-23	MTL 2 - 6 VGK	VGK	VGK
2023-11-16	MTL 5 - 6 VGK	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	16	0	0.91
1	VGK	13	0	1.09
2	MTL	11	1	0.85
2	VGK	19	0	1.75
3	MTL	12	0	1.07
3	VGK	17	1	1.35

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 6 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 2.6 - 3.6