Toronto Maple Leafs at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2022-11-06 • PNC Arena

Carolina Hurricanes 1 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)

Win Probability

CAR: 64.0%

TOR: 36.0%

Expected Goals

CAR: 3.71

TOR: 2.66

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

TOR

E. Kallgren

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Frederik Andersen	21	18	3	85.7%	2.76	1	-0.24
TOR	E. Kallgren	30	29	1	96.7%	3.15	0	2.15

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CAR at home vs TOR: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-20	TOR 3 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-12-04	CAR 1 - 5 TOR	TOR	CAR
2025-11-09	TOR 4 - 5 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-04-13	CAR 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	CAR
2025-02-22	TOR 6 - 3 CAR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	21	0	1.05
1	TOR	5	0	0.36
2	CAR	16	0	1.18
2	TOR	20	0	1.00
3	CAR	18	0	0.92
3	TOR	10	1	1.40

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Carolina Hurricanes 1 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.7 - 2.7