Arizona Coyotes at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2022-11-08 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 1 - 4 Arizona Coyotes

🚨 Upset Loss (67% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 67.4%

ARI: 32.6%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.57

ARI: 2.40

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 73%

Over 6.5: 56%

BUF

E. Comrie

ARI

K. Vejmelka - 12-21-0 | 0.891 SV% | 3.67 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	E. Comrie	24	20	4	83.3%	1.83	1	-2.17
ARI	K. Vejmelka	33	32	1	97.0%	3.46	3	2.46

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • BUF at home vs ARI: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2023-12-16	ARI 2 - 0 BUF	ARI	ARI
2023-12-11	BUF 5 - 2 ARI	BUF	BUF
2022-12-17	ARI 2 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2022-11-08	BUF 1 - 4 ARI	ARI	BUF
2022-01-29	ARI 1 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	16	0	0.88
1	ARI	9	0	0.43
2	BUF	21	1	1.53
2	ARI	11	0	0.50
3	BUF	14	2	1.05
3	ARI	8	1	0.90

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 67.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 1 - 4 Arizona Coyotes

Expected: 3.6 - 2.4