Vancouver Canucks at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2022-11-08 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 4 - 6 Vancouver Canucks

🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 63.8%

VAN: 36.2%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.32

VAN: 2.86

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 49%

OTT

C. Talbot

VAN

S. Martin

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	C. Talbot	28	22	6	78.6%	3.38	4	-2.62
VAN	S. Martin	41	37	4	90.2%	4.60	1	0.60

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • OTT at home vs VAN: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-09	VAN 0 - 2 OTT	OTT	OTT
2026-01-13	OTT 2 - 1 VAN	OTT	OTT
2024-12-21	VAN 4 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2024-11-23	OTT 3 - 4 VAN	VAN	OTT
2024-01-02	VAN 6 - 3 OTT	VAN	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	22	1	1.52
1	VAN	11	0	0.34
2	OTT	27	0	1.90
2	VAN	11	2	1.32
3	OTT	12	0	1.18
3	VAN	13	2	1.71

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 63.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 4 - 6 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9