Vegas Golden Knights at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions
2022-11-10 • KeyBank Center
Buffalo Sabres 4 - 7 Vegas Golden Knights
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BUF: 42.5%
VGK: 57.5%
Expected Goals
BUF: 3.02
VGK: 3.43
Total Goals
Median: 6.6
Over 5.5: 65%
Over 6.5: 51%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BUF
E. Comrie
VGK
L. Thompson
| Stat | BUF | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | — | — |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | — | — |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | E. Comrie | 36 | 29 | 7 | 80.6% | 3.20 | 1 | -3.80 |
| VGK | L. Thompson | 35 | 31 | 4 | 88.6% | 3.13 | 2 | -0.87 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • BUF at home vs VGK: 4-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | VGK 0 - 2 BUF | BUF | VGK |
| 2026-03-03 | BUF 3 - 2 VGK | BUF | VGK |
| 2025-03-15 | BUF 4 - 3 VGK | BUF | VGK |
| 2025-01-04 | VGK 3 - 1 BUF | VGK | VGK |
| 2024-03-02 | BUF 7 - 2 VGK | BUF | BUF |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | 14 | 0 | 0.70 |
| 1 | VGK | 15 | 0 | 0.79 |
| 2 | BUF | 18 | 0 | 1.24 |
| 2 | VGK | 7 | 0 | 0.84 |
| 3 | BUF | 17 | 2 | 1.19 |
| 3 | VGK | 19 | 1 | 1.57 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 57.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 11.0
Expected: 6.5
Score Breakdown
Buffalo Sabres 4 - 7 Vegas Golden Knights
Expected: 3.0 - 3.4
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