Pittsburgh Penguins at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2022-11-11 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 52.4%

PIT: 47.6%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.38

PIT: 2.98

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 49%

TOR

E. Kallgren

PIT

C. DeSmith

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	E. Kallgren	23	19	4	82.6%	3.90	3	-0.10
PIT	C. DeSmith	30	28	2	93.3%	3.25	3	1.25

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • TOR at home vs PIT: 6-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-23	TOR 6 - 3 PIT	TOR	TOR
2025-11-29	PIT 2 - 7 TOR	TOR	PIT
2025-11-03	TOR 4 - 3 PIT	TOR	TOR
2025-03-02	PIT 5 - 6 TOR	TOR	TOR
2024-12-07	PIT 5 - 2 TOR	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	13	0	0.66
1	PIT	12	0	0.73
2	TOR	25	2	1.84
2	PIT	11	0	0.51
3	TOR	8	1	0.75
3	PIT	13	3	2.66

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.4 - 3.0