Tampa Bay Lightning at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2022-11-11 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 5 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

WSH: 53.8%

TBL: 46.2%

Expected Goals

WSH: 2.91

TBL: 2.91

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 51%

WSH

D. Kuemper

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	D. Kuemper	29	28	1	96.6%	2.79	1	1.79
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	24	19	5	79.2%	2.99	2	-2.01

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • WSH at home vs TBL: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-22	WSH 3 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-08	TBL 3 - 2 WSH	TBL	TBL
2025-10-14	WSH 3 - 2 TBL	WSH	WSH
2025-03-01	WSH 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-11-27	TBL 4 - 5 WSH	WSH	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	14	1	1.22
1	TBL	15	0	0.96
2	WSH	18	1	1.13
2	TBL	15	0	1.10
3	WSH	8	0	0.65
3	TBL	14	1	0.74

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 5 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 2.9 - 2.9