Ottawa Senators at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2022-11-12 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 4 Ottawa Senators

Win Probability

PHI: 31.7%

OTT: 68.3%

Expected Goals

PHI: 2.92

OTT: 3.39

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 50%

PHI

C. Hart

OTT

C. Talbot

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	C. Hart	27	23	4	85.2%	2.23	2	-1.77
OTT	C. Talbot	38	37	1	97.4%	2.30	0	1.30

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • PHI at home vs OTT: 2-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	PHI 1 - 2 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-11-08	PHI 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-10-23	OTT 2 - 1 PHI	OTT	OTT
2025-04-13	OTT 4 - 3 PHI	OTT	OTT
2025-03-11	PHI 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	19	0	0.90
1	OTT	11	0	0.33
2	PHI	15	0	0.90
2	OTT	11	1	0.62
3	PHI	11	0	0.49
3	OTT	12	1	1.28

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 68.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 4 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 2.9 - 3.4