Winnipeg Jets at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2022-11-12 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 3 - 2 Winnipeg Jets

Win Probability

CGY: 53.5%

WPG: 46.5%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.03

WPG: 3.13

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 51%

CGY

J. Markstrom

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	23	21	2	91.3%	1.94	0	-0.06
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	35	32	3	91.4%	2.61	1	-0.39

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • CGY at home vs WPG: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-15	CGY 3 - 4 WPG	WPG	CGY
2025-10-24	WPG 5 - 3 CGY	WPG	WPG
2025-10-20	CGY 1 - 2 WPG	WPG	WPG
2025-01-26	WPG 5 - 2 CGY	WPG	WPG
2025-01-18	WPG 1 - 3 CGY	CGY	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	13	1	1.05
1	WPG	12	0	0.76
2	CGY	15	0	0.65
2	WPG	13	0	0.97
3	CGY	13	0	0.91
3	WPG	7	0	0.21

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 3 - 2 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.0 - 3.1