Dallas Stars at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2022-11-13 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 5 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

PHI: 38.9%

DAL: 61.1%

Expected Goals

PHI: 2.75

DAL: 3.29

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 52%

PHI

F. Sandstrom

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	F. Sandstrom	31	26	5	83.9%	3.18	2	-1.82
DAL	Jake Oettinger	38	37	1	97.4%	3.20	2	2.20

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 90% • PHI at home vs DAL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-29	PHI 2 - 1 DAL	PHI	PHI
2025-11-15	DAL 5 - 1 PHI	DAL	DAL
2025-03-22	DAL 3 - 2 PHI	DAL	PHI
2025-01-09	PHI 1 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-01-18	PHI 5 - 1 DAL	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	14	1	0.92
1	DAL	17	1	0.96
2	PHI	16	1	1.06
2	DAL	14	1	1.31
3	PHI	19	0	1.22
3	DAL	13	0	0.91

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 5 Dallas Stars

Expected: 2.8 - 3.3