St. Louis Blues at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2022-11-14 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 3 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 59.7%

STL: 40.3%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.08

STL: 2.81

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 48%

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	39	36	3	92.3%	2.96	0	-0.04
STL	Jordan Binnington	47	45	2	95.7%	3.40	1	1.40

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 54% • COL at home vs STL: 6-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	STL 1 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2026-04-05	COL 2 - 3 STL	STL	COL
2025-12-31	COL 6 - 1 STL	COL	COL
2025-04-05	STL 5 - 4 COL	STL	COL
2025-03-29	COL 1 - 2 STL	STL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	25	1	1.35
1	STL	15	0	0.51
2	COL	15	0	0.50
2	STL	19	0	1.11
3	COL	28	0	1.55
3	STL	16	0	1.34

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 3 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.1 - 2.8